Over the course of the
General Election campaign, Theresa May has worked to make a pitch to
working class voters in Labour's traditional heartlands.
In previous elections the notion that the North of England
could be winnable for the Conservatives would have been unthinkable - but there
are many recent signs to suggest that many areas could turn blue this time
around.
Both the North East and the North West voted emphatically to
leave the EU in last June's referendum and some polling has shown that the Conservatives are now
level with Labour in the North and lead among working class voters.
This, combined with strong performances in the North East at the local elections, will give the Conservatives hope that their
stance on Brexit could allow them to crack the North.
There are 28 seats in the North East and North West of
England in which the Conservatives are fewer than 10,000 votes behind either
Labour or the Lib Dems. These are the seats that Theresa May will be
targetting.
Chester is the lowest hanging fruit, with Labour's Chris
Matheson beating his Conservative opponent by fewer than 100 votes in 2015.
Wirral West, Barrow & Furness and Lancaster & Fleetwood
are the next tightest, with swings of less than two per cent to the
Conservatives from Labour required.
In the North East, the
Conservatives have realistic hopes of winning Darlington, Middlesbrough South
and Hartlepool.
Brexit could be the defining factor
across the UK
The Conservatives are currently polling at around 43 per cent, according
to the latest average – six points clear of Labour on 37 per cent.
On a constituency level,
Leave-voting Labour areas are likely to swing harder towards the Conservatives
than the national swing suggests.
This was seen in Theresa
May's shock victory in the Copeland by-election. The Leave-voting area swung by
more than six per cent to the Conservatives after being in Labour
hands for its entire history.
The Conservatives are likely to gain around 58 seats in Labour's North and Midlands heartlands due to the Brexit effect in the upcoming snap election on June 8. Some have claimed that even MPs with a majority of 9,000 could lose their seats.
An analysis of the 2015 General Election results by The
Telegraph has shown that this would mainly affect seats in the North and the Midlands – areas which voted strongly for Brexit last
June.
If the Tories are successful, it would be a huge blow to Jeremy
Corbyn's party and would mean that several Labour frontbenchers would lose
their seats in Parliament.
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