Once
the polls close at 10pm, the broadcasters will publish their joint BBC/ITV/Sky
exit poll and pundits will spend the next hour or so chewing over the findings.
And
then the real fun begins with Houghton and Sunderland South and Newcastle East
both hoping to be the first constituency to declare a result.
10.40pm: And we’re off!
Seat:
Houghton and Sunderland South
Traditionally
the first to declare, Houghton and Sunderland South must get the result by
10.41pm if they are to beat their own record for the fastest declaration on
election night. Labour’s Bridget Phillipson should be safe with a big majority
of almost 13,000. The key thing to look out for here is Ukip voters switching
to the Tories. The Kippers came second in 2015. A substantial swing from Ukip
to the Tories would suggest that Theresa May is set to do well elsewhere.
1245am: Will Greening be put out to pasture?
Seat:
Putney
If
Jeremy Corbyn is doing really well then education secretary Justine Greening
could be the first big beast to fall in Putney. It would be some achievement,
given that Greening has a substantial 10,000 majority. The Tories are confident
that Greening can survive, but optimistic Labour sources say the conditions are
favourable in the cosmopolitan west London constituency. It has a reasonably
high count of young professionals, students and ethnic minority voters – all of
whom who tend to be favourable towards Corbyn.
1am: Can Corbyn succeed where Miliband failed?
Seat:
Nuneaton
The
first key bellwether to come in. Nuneaton tends to swing with the overall
winner, which is why everyone knew that Ed Miliband was in trouble in the last
general election. In 2015, Labour had hoped to win the Warwickshire seat, but
Tory Marcus Jones cantered home with a comfortable 5,000 majority. A Labour win
would suggest that the Tories are not going to maintain their majority. That’s
unlikely, but if Labour can return the Nuneaton to the marginal status it had
in 2005 and 2010 then Jeremy Corbyn may still have a dog in the fight.
130am: Has May cracked the north east?
Seat:
Darlington
The
first seat to give a clear clue as to whether Theresa May’s strategy of
targeting the north east has been successful. The constituency has been Labour
since 1992 but shadow Brexit minister Jenny Chapman only has a majority of
around 3,000. And Labour did badly in the local elections. The Tories are
hoping despite the fact that candidate Peter Cuthbertson recently hit the
headlines for having written some strange things about rape, homosexuality and
morality in the early 2000s.
230am: What says Jez?
Seat:
Islington North
Jeremy
Corbyn is defending a whopping 22.00 majority here. Potentially more revealing
than the final figures will be Corbyn’s victory speech. Will he be sounding
triumphant or hubristic? Or will he already be getting his excuses in?
3am: Will Aker be the Ukip pacemaker?
Seat:
Thurrock
A
fascinating three-way Con/Lab/Ukip marginal – and perhaps the seat in which
Ukip stands the best chance of winning. In fact, it’s about the only seat area
where Kippers are talking a good game. In 2015, Conservative Jackie Doyle Price
won it with a majority of 974. Ukip candidate Tim Aker is hoping to step in to
her shoes, but has Theresa May squeezed his party out?
330am: Will Kate pay for her date with Nigel?
Seat:
Vauxhall
The
Liberal Democrats have been making a concerted effort to oust Kate Hoey out of
Vauxhall mainly by alerting voters to the fact that Hoey spent much of the EU
referendum hanging out with Nigel Farage. Local Lib Dems have also distributed
a leaflet showing Hoey’s face merged with Farage. The good news for the Lib
Dems is that 78% of residents here backed remain. The bad news is that Hoey has
a 12,000 majority and the Lib Dems came fourth behind the Greens in 2015.
4am: Will Zac get whacked (again)?
Seat:
Richmond Park
After
his humiliating by-election defeat, Zac Goldsmith is hoping that the people of
Richmond Park and North Kingston will ignore the fact that he voted for Brexit
and reconsider their verdict. Were he to lose again, many Tory insiders would
be sad to see the demise of a man who was previously one of their most
promising politicians. Many Labour supporters would find it very amusing.
4am: Moment of truth for Ruth?
Seat:
Aberdeen South
The
SNP’s Callum McCaig has a healthy 9,000 plus majority in the granite city, but
this seat is in the Tories’ sights this time after a strong performance in the
Scottish parliamentary elections from candidate Ross Thomson. Taking this seat
– a surprise win for John Major in 1992 – would be the sign of a very good
night indeed for the Scottish Tories… and yet another boost for Ruth Davidson’s
chances of being next Tory leader.
4am: Can Clive survive?
Seat:
Norwich South
If
Labour has a bad night then one significant casualty could be Clive Lewis.
Labour insiders are optimistic that Lewis’ 7,000 majority will be enough to
save him in the pro-Remain seat. But they are taking nothing for granted after
some worrying polling mid-way through the campaign. If Lewis was to lose his
seat it would be a huge blow for the many Labour supporters, such as The
Guardian’s Own Jones, who fancy Lewis as the most credible left wing successor
to Corbyn.
4.30am: Last orders at the Barwell?
Seat:
Croydon Central
Labour
have high hopes for Tory scalp in this this key marginal. Housing minister
Gavin Barwell has a tiny majority of 165 and Labour has been polling well in
London. But Barwell is a tough opponent. Not only is he a liberal Tory and a
Remainer, he is also an accomplished and energetic campaigner - and the author
of a book about ‘how to win a marginal seat’.
5am: Will Dennis get skinned?
Seat:
Bolsover
Home of
the Beast himself, Dennis Skinner. This Derbyshire constituency ought to be
safe Labour territory but we’re told the Tories are going after one of Jeremy
Corbyn’s keenest supporters in the hope of a ‘Portillo moment’ of their own.
5am: Silence of the Lamb?
Seat:
North Norfolk
Former
care minister Norman Lamb is the last remaining Lib Dem in the East of England.
But he faces a tough fight to cling on to the constituency he has held since
2001. Ominously for Lamb, the region voted in favour of Brexit. So he has been
downplaying the national Lib Dem message and instead relying on his local
credentials and his track record in the constituency to get him over the line.
5am: Tim’s great southern saviour?
Seat:
St Albans
This
seat was initially 57th on the Lib Dem target seat list. But in the last week
or so, the party has made St Albans one of its top targets after unexpectedly
promising results in the county council elections. The pro-Remain constituency
is home to many voters who work in central London. It is held by the
Conservative Anne Main, who has a 12,000 plus majority – but campaigned for
Leave. A stunning Lib Dem victory in St Albans would help to cushion the blow
of defeats elsewhere in the country for Tim Farron. As long as he hasn't
already lost his own seat, that is...
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